2023 cattle markets: The yr up to now and the second half forward
The primary half of 2023 has definitely seen important modifications in cattle and beef markets. Costs are greater throughout the board as tighter cattle numbers and declining beef provides push markets in the direction of or past file ranges. Remaining drought areas within the central and southern plains proceed to shrink with persevering with impacts on the areas however much less impression nationally on cattle markets.
Beef manufacturing within the first 24 weeks of the yr is down 4.9% from the 2022 file tempo. Within the final 4 weeks of knowledge, beef manufacturing is down 5.3% yr over yr. Yearling (steer + heifer) slaughter is down 3.0% yr over yr up to now in 2023, with steer slaughter down 4.7% for the yr so far and heifer slaughter down 0.4% up to now this yr. Nevertheless, heifer slaughter is down 4.9% yr over yr within the final 4 weeks and combines with a 5.9% lower in steers slaughter to scale back complete yearling slaughter 5.5% in the newest 4 weeks of knowledge. Complete cow slaughter is down 4.4% for the yr so far with a 12.1% yr over yr lower in beef cow slaughter partially offset by a 5.5% yr so far enhance in dairy cow slaughter. Bull slaughter is down 8.4% to date in 2023.
Oklahoma public sale costs for steer calves below 600 kilos have averaged 41.9% greater yr over yr in June. Feeder steers over 600 kilos have averaged 39.7% greater in comparison with the identical 4 weeks one yr in the past. The five-market fed cattle value has averaged 30.3% greater yr over yr prior to now 4 weeks. The June cattle on feed report confirmed that feedlot inventories have been decrease for 9 consecutive months. The June 1 feedlot stock was 11.55 million head, down 2.9% yr over yr. The decline in feedlot stock has been comparatively sluggish with Might feedlot placements greater than anticipated based mostly on lingering drought impacts and robust feeder demand as feedlots try to keep up inventories. Nevertheless, feeder provides and feedlot numbers will proceed to say no as the fact of smaller cattle provides builds. Elevated heifer retention is more likely to squeeze feeder provides extra sharply within the second half of the yr.
Boxed beef costs within the final 4 weeks have averaged 24.1% greater yr over yr. Boxed beef costs moved sharply greater after Memorial Day by mid-June with robust shopping for for the Independence Day vacation. The comply with as much as July 4 (a four-day weekend for a lot of) will present good indications for beef demand for the rest of summer time. It’s typical for beef demand to expertise a slow-down throughout the summer time doldrums, however total beef demand stays strong.
The most important query for the second half of the yr is the extent to which herd rebuilding begins with elevated heifer retention and continued reductions in cow slaughter. Producer expectations and remaining drought circumstances will impression the timing of herd rebuilding efforts. The upcoming July “Cattle on Feed” report (with quarterly steer and heifer feedlot inventories) and the July “Cattle” report are anticipated to supply vital clues as to how cattle market circumstances might change within the second half of the yr.
