Dry autumn forecast for many of Australia

The Bureau of Meteorology has launched its long-range forecast for autumn 2023 and it signifies coming months are prone to be drier and hotter than common throughout most of Australia.

To view BOM’s newest seasonal local weather outlook assertion click here

Hotter than common daytime temperatures are very seemingly this autumn for a lot of Australia, whereas hotter nights are additionally seemingly in coastal areas of the mainland and notably Tasmania.

Bureau of Meteorology Technical Lead Prolonged Prediction Dr Andrew Watkins mentioned drier than common circumstances have emerged in some areas over summer time, together with components of southern Queensland, western Tasmania and south-west Western Australia.

“Australia’s key local weather drivers are easing and anticipated to be impartial over the approaching months. When our local weather drivers are extra impartial, autumn rainfall in southern Australia has typically been decrease than common over latest many years,” Dr Watkins mentioned.

La Niña is nearing its finish within the Pacific Ocean, with circumstances prone to be impartial (neither El Niño nor La Niña) throughout autumn. The Indian Ocean Dipole is impartial and has little affect on Australia’s local weather in the course of the northern moist season, which extends via till April.

“With drier circumstances rising in some areas over summer time, and dry and heat circumstances seemingly in autumn, some areas could proceed to have under common rainfall over coming months,” Dr Watkins mentioned.

Australia’s fireplace businesses have recognized that almost all of Australia has regular bushfire potential throughout autumn. Nonetheless, areas of above regular bushfire danger embody components of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.

There may be additionally a continued danger of grassfires throughout southern Australia after ample vegetation progress in the course of the second-wettest spring on report in 2022 dried over summer time.

For northern Australia, the moist season continues throughout March and April. Tropical cyclones, tropical lows, storms and lively monsoon bursts can happen within the north.

In the course of the northern moist season, tropical climate techniques could, at occasions, attain southern Australia. The possibility of extra rainfall means the flood danger stays, notably in areas the place rivers and water storages are nonetheless excessive.

Communities are inspired to remain updated with forecasts and warnings via the Bureau’s web site and BOM Climate app.

Summer season 2022-23 snapshot

Whereas it was wetter than common summer time for many of northern Australia, giant areas within the south have had a drier than common summer time.

North Queensland had nicely above common rainfall this summer time. Nonetheless, rainfall in components of south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales was nicely under common.

It has been a a lot drier summer time than common for southern and inland components of Western Australia, western Victoria and western Tasmania.

There have been 4 tropical cyclones within the Australian area between November 2022 and the tip of February 2023.

Ex-tropical cyclone Ellie introduced heavy rainfall and flooding to northern areas of Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland contributing to above common summer time rainfall in these areas.

Summer season days had been hotter than common in Tasmania, western and central areas of Western Australia, and enormous components of South Australia.

Daytime temperatures had been cooler than common throughout a lot of the Northern Territory and most of Queensland.

High temperatures for this previous summer time in Australia’s capital cities had been:

Adelaide 41.0 °C on 27 December
Melbourne 40.5 °C on 17 February
Perth 39.5 °C on 21 January
Hobart 36.7 °C on 17 February
Canberra 36.1 °C on 18 February
Darwin 36.1 °C on 2 December
Brisbane 35.7 °C on 12 February
Sydney 30.6 °C on 3 February.